U.S. Intel has reported that Russia will cause a fake conflict to justify the invasion of Ukraine. NBC reports, “We have information that indicates Russia has already pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. The operatives are  trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces.”

“Another report by David E. Sanger of The New York Times stated, “President Biden said on Wednesday [Jan. 19] that he now expected President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would order an invasion of Ukraine.” 

However, to understand why Russia is threatening Ukraine, a brief history lesson is needed.

In 1991, Ukraine officially declared itself a democracy and broke off from Russia. Russia wanted to regain control of Ukraine after this and made threats throughout the years. On Feb. 20, 2014, Russia officially invaded southern Ukraine, more specifically a peninsula known as Crimea. 

Over the course of 35 days, Russian forces pushed Ukraine and its people out of power. On March 26, 2014 Russia had successfully annexed Crimea from the Ukraine and was now under Russian control. The world watched with little power to stop the invasion without conflict; they could only tell Russia what they felt. According to CNN, “Within days, Russia completed its annexation in a referendum that was slammed by Ukraine and most of the world as illegitimate.”

Seven years after Crimea, tensions have only increased. Both sides have continued to bring more military power and troops to the border where Ukraine meets Russia and the Black Sea. Due to this, fire-fights between Ukraine and Russia often occur on the border. According to a U.N. Report, “There have been more than 3,000 conflict-related civilian deaths in eastern Ukraine since March 2014.” 

While Ukraine is on the defense, the world waits to respond. Richard Luscombe of The Guardian stated, “The US and its allies will deliver a ’swift, severe and united response’ if Russia invades Ukraine, the secretary of state, Antony Blinken, warned on Sunday amid rising tensions.”

 Russia also has planned to move ships near the coast of Ireland, which Simon Coveney, who holds both the foreign and defence ministerial briefs, said, “We don’t have the power to prevent this happening, but certainly I’ve made it clear to the Russian ambassador in Ireland that it’s not welcome,” (BBC). The only thing to do now is to wait and see what happens overseas.